As far as “looking for new land to buy,” the first place they’ll look is . . . the parks.

During more recent conversations, I have questioned the new projections, noting my previous experience with them, and have been assured that the PSU group has improved their methodology.

I remain skeptical. Mostly because in 2005-6 the reps from the PSU group conceded that they had pretty good confidence in their projections District-wide, but that the numbers got less and less reliable as the focus narrowed. By the time you got to projections about a particular school, their numbers were close to garbage (my words, not theirs). Which, as the K-8 fiasco shows, is pretty accurate. The resulting overcrowding in many of the expanded schools required PPS spending an unbudgeted $20 million in portables to accommodate overcrowding.

The other issue that I find troubling about the current enrollment planning is that the District/Board has established a 10 year time horizon. If we’re talking about closing buildings that will be leased (the current lease for Kenton is 20 years), or even sold, that seems like a very short timeframe.

As far as I know, despite the economic downturn, Metro has not backed off much from its projection of a million new residents in the area over the next decade, many of them being young professionals, the prime family-starting age. I get that predictions are a tricky business, especially when they’re trying to plan for both the short-term and long-term, and I’m not qualified to come up with better numbers. But I think the lesson here is that the District needs to preserve flexibility.

In other words, keep leases relatively short (like 10 years max) and don’t sell anything. It’s the people’s land. Our forebears (who were, by the way, a lot poorer on average than we are now) spent their hard-earned $$ to invest in education. (What a concept!) The least we can do is honor that foresight and preserve the public wealth. We’re probably going to need it.

Enrollment projections have been all over the place. This link provides some data and history:

http://www.pps.k12.or.us/depts.....hase2.html

Give ‘em hell at the board meeting, Vargasgarcia.

The Oregonian’s article today is speculative, but maybe it’ll incite enough people in storming the next board meeting and demanding some transparency. I’ll be there.

Marshall is in a parking lot. Way out in nowhere land. Bye. Bye.

Madison is way too big anyway. Close it. Sell it.

Jeff. Keep it open. You have to be kidding. Whoops, some people in that neighborhood can be pretty vocal. Maybe I will think about that. Small school maybe.

Franklin. Always liked Franklin. Too bad it is right in the middle of all those other schools. Keep it as a swing school during the renovation etc.

Roosevelt. Heck, it is in the middle of nowhere almost, but isn’t in a parking lot. Keep it for now since the people across the street are a long ways from any other school.

Benson. What difference does it make? The school board and administration has pretty much ruined it anyway. Too bad, used to be one of the top schools in the country.

Grant. Don’t worry. Close a school in the middle of Irvington and Alameda? Might as well write your political death warrant. Besides we need to put those kids from Franklin someplace.

Wilson. Not a chance for closure. That community already took enough punishment when we closed one of its elementary schools.

Cleveland. Nope. Gotta have it to put the Marshall kids who don’t transfer out after the transfer policy is given a 10 year continuance. Well, guess technically they are transfers at Cleveland. Change name to East Moreland High and put in an AP and IB special focus option. Don’t really want to rub shoulders with people who live east of 52nd.

Lincoln. Close for sure. Right after they build the new Lincoln NW.

And all in the name of equity.